Pivot Counties
Pivot counties are counties that voted for one president in one election, and then flipped to the other in the next election. They help to decide which states will flip and which will stay the same. Bellwether counties are frequently pivot counties as they pivot to vote for the winning candidate. Clallam County, Kent County, and Erie County all were pivot counties in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Understanding which counties pivoted can help understand shifts in voting blocks along with statewide swings.
One thing looking at pivot counties can do is project states flipping in the future. One example is in Georgia in 2016. Cobb County, Gwinnett County, and Henry County (suburbs of Atlanta) all were pivot counties in 2016, shifting left by as much as 15 points. Georgia didn’t flip blue in that election, but did four years later as these pivot counties continued their leftward trend and helped flip Georgia for the first time in 24 years. One state in 2020 stood out with many pivot counties: Texas. These pivots happened particularly in suburban counties around Dallas, Houston, and Austin. Texas shifted left in 2020 by almost five points. The swings in these counties showcase an important correlation in Texas: suburbs shifting left means the state as a whole gets bluer. If the trends in these suburban counties continues as it did in Georgia, Texas could very well go blue in 2024 (although, since it has a bigger population, it’s more realistic to flip in 2028).
Most pivot counties are suburbs because they are inherently more purple than urban and rural areas. However, there is one huge outlier in this case: Miami-Dade County. Miami-Dade was not a pivot county in 2020, but it shifted right by 22 points. This is a MASSIVE shift and outweighs the swings of many of the suburban pivot counties not just by number of votes but by percentage. In 2022, Marco Rubio won his senate seat in Florida, thanks in part to Miami-Dade, which shifted right a further 17 points from 2020. A major contributor to this insane swing is the hispanic vote becoming redder. Miami-Dade is one of the most hispanic metro areas in the U.S., so there’s a strong correlation between this one ethnic group and such a large pivot. Miami-Dade County’s pivot in 2020 and 2022 is a signifier that Florida is no longer a swing state, and could be a future Republican stronghold if the current trends continue.
Look for pivot counties in the 2024 election. Miami-Dade could be one of them and would signal a massive shift in Florida politics. Look for trends in the 2020 pivot counties such the ones in suburban Texas. If these continue to trend Democratic, Texas could be a toss up come next election cycle.